BCA CEO Foresees Surge in Research Demand During Trump 2.0 Presidency
Q1. Why is there so much uncertainty about Trump’s economic policy? There are two key reasons why Trump’s economic

Q1. Why is there so much uncertainty about Trump’s economic policy?
There are two key reasons why Trump’s economic policies are harder to predict compared to previous administrations. First, Trump’s personality is unpredictable, which makes it difficult to gauge his decisions. Second, many of his appointees come from outside the political establishment, so they lack the track record that would allow for easier forecasting. However, this doesn’t mean that all predictions are futile. During his campaign, the President-elect made several bold promises, including imposing 10% tariffs on global imports and 60% tariffs on Chinese imports (Reuters), scaling back climate regulations while increasing fossil fuel production, and slashing corporate taxes (BBC). These commitments could significantly influence geopolitical relations and global markets.
However, as observed during his first term, Trump has not always followed through on his threats. For instance, it remains unclear whether he will withdraw the U.S. from NATO (Atlantic Council) or impose permanent, higher tariffs through legislation (USA Today). The success and feasibility of these policies will have a major impact on the global economy and markets. While no one can predict the future with certainty, investors will increasingly turn to research providers who can anticipate various scenarios and assess potential outcomes. Consequently, the demand for research is expected to rise.
Q2. Which sectors or asset classes are likely to see the most demand for research during Trump’s second term?
I anticipate a rise in research demand across all major asset classes. Trump’s positions on trade, immigration, and foreign policy introduce both positive and negative tail risks. Additionally, with slim majorities in both houses of Congress, some of his initiatives—especially tax reform—are expected to bring about long-term or structural changes.
Company-specific equity research is likely to thrive as Trump’s ideologically aligned cabinet takes strong stances that impact multiple sectors. Investors will be keen to understand the precise effects of deregulation, which tends to benefit corporate earnings, particularly in sectors like energy and banking. However, loosening regulations may have unpredictable or negative consequences in areas like healthcare. At the same time, a cooling labor market could slow overall economic growth and create headwinds.
Given trade tariffs and Elon Musk’s efforts to reduce red tape, Trump’s second term could benefit smaller companies in contrast to the large-cap firms that have dominated the bull market. We’ve already seen stock indexes surge, with the S&P 500 hitting record highs (CNBC) and the Russell 2000 small-cap index reaching its peak following Scott Bessent’s appointment as Treasury Secretary (Reuters). However, investors will need research to assess whether corporate earnings can sustain this optimism.
Foreign policy could create tensions with domestic policy. In the energy sector, deregulation is advantageous, but Trump has also proposed repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, particularly its renewable energy subsidies (Utility Dive). A potential ceasefire in Ukraine could reduce European demand for U.S. natural gas, while sanctions enforcement against Iran may lead to unexpected oil disruptions across the Middle East. The business cycle and bond market will be critical factors to watch. Excessive tax cuts could worsen the budget deficit and fuel inflation, while deep spending cuts could slow economic growth. Investors will need to closely monitor tax bill negotiations.
Q3. Will the surge in demand for research divisions significantly benefit banks and brokerages?
Banks and brokerages that offer research services will see a general boost as clients navigate the policy changes from the White House, Congress, and international developments. However, the demand for independent research providers is expected to grow even further. Investors will seek unbiased insights from parties without conflicts of interest. Independent research providers are not influenced by any investment we may have an interest in supporting, but our research remains accountable to investors and the markets.
Trump’s victory will also drive investors to seek more tailored insights for specific asset classes and regions. Independent research firms, like BCA, are agile in responding to market shifts. For example, in 2023, we introduced our Private Markets & Alternatives product in response to increased client demand, offering a framework for investors in private equity, credit, and other private markets.
Q4. Which of Trump’s policy areas—fiscal policy, oil and gas, or labor markets—do you think will create the most uncertainty for investors?
The trade war is likely to be the largest source of uncertainty, as Trump has the ability to impose broad tariffs unilaterally, which could disrupt already fragile global manufacturing economies. Recently, Trump vowed to introduce 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% on Chinese imports starting on Day One, January 20 (Sky News).
A significant portion of US crude oil imports comes from Canada (Financial Times), while Mexico is a major source of US manufacturing imports, including vehicles, agricultural products, and electrical equipment (The Washington Post). However, trade tensions with China and Europe could have a more substantial impact due to their larger economies and less reliance on the US.
Questions remain about whether Trump will pursue a “Phase Two” trade deal with China to prevent a global economic decoupling, whether he will settle for short-term purchases, or if he will push for long-term structural changes. There’s also the uncertainty surrounding potential international interventions in currency markets. These issues demand continuous monitoring, research, and a solid analytical framework. For investors, the stakes are too high to rely on speculation.
Source: Eric Jaffe, CEO of BCA Research, shares his insights with Investing.com on the promising future of market research under the incoming Trump administration.